The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes

With the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Andrew Luck the star quarterback from Stanford University is guaranteed to hear his name called.  One of the biggest decisions that often leads to numerous “experts” each supply his/her own candidate to be selected has amazingly all ready become a foregone conclusion. Andrew Luck, Stanford University’s heralded quarterback, has been discussed, diagnosed, and thoroughly examined, and the resulting answer is that the man posses no flaw.

He has the stereotypical quarterback body type; tall, muscular, amazing arm strength, etc. He possesses the lineage; his father Oliver Luck is a former NFL quarterback and now the Athletic Director at West Virginia University. Furthermore, he can make any throw in the game. Short, long, to the left, to the right, under pressure, under center, from the shotgun formation, around three defenders, you name it and Andrew Luck can make it. But even among these traits exist some similar competitors. However what makes Andrew Luck a tier above, are his intangibles. His ability to simply perform better under pressure, the ease and beauty at which he performs his duties as a quarterback and his love of the game that brought him back to college for another year despite the guarantee that he would be selected first overall in the 2011 Draft.  Luck makes everyone around him that much better, deflects all attention and praises his teammates at every opportunity he gets. The last quarterback to possess all of these above mentioned traits? Peyton Manning.

Now that we know who will be selected first, the rest of the current NFL season can be called the Andrew Luck sweepstakes as teams strategically try and position themselves for the first pick in the draft. Since this isn’t the NBA with its lottery, one simply must just finish with the worst record to have this divine right. Let’s look at the competitors.

1.     Indianapolis Colts – With Peyton Manning out for the season, this season has practically been a lost cause for the Colts since the beginning of the season. When the team signed Kerry Collins in the offseason they practically threw in the towel. This season has shown the amazing ability of Peyton Manning who had he been with the Colts this season, they very well may have been 5-0 instead of 0-5. If I had a vote for this season’s MVP award winner, Manning would already have my vote because of the incredible ability one person has on the winning of one team. Even without LeBron James, Cleveland weren’t as bad as the Colts are without Manning. There is a high likelihood that the Colts could lose every game this season, which is down right appalling. Regardless of who starts at QB, Collins or Curtis Painter, they have both proven that they are a disaster. The defense has done as much as humanly possible but with itself practically always on the field, there is only so much they can do. The offense has practically no running game because defenders can crowd the box and they laugh at the Colts’ QB’s begging them to throw. Unfortunately for Colts’ fans, this season could very well get worse then better without any wins in the near future. However, picture this; Andrew Luck on the same team as Peyton Manning. The last player to be as highly hyped out of college as Luck was indeed Manning and he could have the ability to sit for a few years behind Manning and then seamlessly take over and lead the colts to the super bowl for the next decade. If I were the Colts I would do anything humanly possible to make this happen and would start a 7- year old kid at QB if that’s what it took to lose for the rest of the season.

2.     Miami Dolphins- Miami has surprisingly been a mess this year and they too do not seem to be getting better any time soon.  With the news that their starting QB, Chad Henne, who was shaky at best, is out for a long period of time, I don’t see their fortunes getting any better anytime soon. The Dolphins had a lackluster passing game to begin with, and Henne seemed think it was smart to constantly throw into triple coverage where he would unsurprisingly be intercepted. However, Henne was the best QB on the roster and without him, you might as well kiss behind the passing attack. The running game has been minimal at best with Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush yet to make much any notice. However, now without any passing game, defenses will crowd the box, putting any kibosh on the running game. The Dolphins may have to turn to special teams to have any hopes of putting any points on the board. The Dolphins will be tough competitors of the Colts for the coveted man known as Luck, and will may not have an outcome until the end of the season.

3.     Minnesota Vikings- The Vikings have been down right awful so far this season, but they do have one victory, over the almost as awful Cardinals. The Vikings’ fatal flaw was signing Donovan McNabb in the offseason, a perennial underperformer who has done nothing to shed that claim in Minnesota. However, Minnesota does have Christian Ponder on its roster, the QB from Florida State who has shown plenty of promise and is designated as the QB of the future. So it seems unlikely that the Vikings would draft Luck, the year after spending their first round pick on another QB. However, Luck is that coveted, that the Vikings could do just that. But the chance of the Vikings beating out the Colts or Dolphins is very slim. The Vikings posses Adrian Peterson, perhaps the best running back in the league, and he only should be able to win four more games this season. Far too many in my opinion to win the sweepstakes, and the Vikings chances of winning the sweepstakes will take a lot of “Luck.”

Overall, we are still early in the sweepstakes with plenty of football to still be played. However, it looks to be a two-team race with a third outsider who in reality has little chance of winning. Look for the Colts to hold out Manning even he becomes healthy later in the season and the Dolphins to trade away their entire offensive line, just kidding (but that would work)

Anyways we will check up on these teams in a few months, in the mean time

Boomtho out

Never draft a Spread Quarterback

If History has taught us anything, its that NFL teams should NEVER draft a Spread Quarterback. Countless times teams have drafted these QB's with gaudy stats, and from undefeated teams to only seem them make it to the NFL and flounder. Yes I know the Spread is highly effective in college football and a necessary component for many teams; but this article is not arguing that. Instead I will show how NFL teams need to avoid these QB's like the plague.

Quarterback's who run the spread in College, primarily take snaps out of the shotgun formation. This means that instead of standing right behind the Center, like a Pro-Style QB, these QB's are about five steps back from the Center. This allows them more time from the pass rush and an opportunity to quickly scan the field.

However, these spread schemes often hide the fatal flaws that these QB's have only to have them become exposed when they move up to the NFL.  By not operating in a Pro-Style Scheme in College, these Quarterbacks are not forced to work on their flaws because their teams are successful irregardless. 

Coaches often have Quarterbacks in the Spread move to their right in a bootleg or run a litany of fake handoffs to confuse the defense often resulting in open receivers that any one could throw the ball too. Therefore, these Spread OB's never are forced to work on their accuracy, quickly determining which receiver to throw to, or getting used to how close the defense is.

These flaws are always exposed though at the next level, as these Quarterback's have poor accuracy, poor footwork, have difficulty with the Center-QB exchange and are not used to having the defense so close. 

Many NFL coaches still believe that if a Quarterback has superb basic skills and intangibles then the reward of developing them outweighs the risk.

 

But is that true?

During the 2005 NFL draft two quarterbacks were often discussed as being worth of the #1 pick to the San Francisco 49ers; Alex Smith the Spread style QB from the University of Utah and Aaron Rodgers the Pro-Style QB from  the University of California. Both had excellent seasons prior and both were often picked to go to the 49ers in many mock drafts. However, Smith had slightly better statistics and was part of the undefeated University of Utah team that had recently finished its season. So the 49ers decided to draft Smith with their 1st pick. Rodgers on the other hand fell to the Green Bay Packers with the 24th Overall Pick.

Fast Forward to the present and Alex Smith once again had to fight for the starting job in San Francisco after 6 sub-par years while Aaron Rodgers won the Super Bowl in 2011 and was named the Super Bowl MVP. 

Tim Tebow today is universally regarded as a Legend among College Football Fans today and his College Resume certainly lives up to the billing. Heisman Trophy Winner, Two-Time National Champion, Tebow was regarded as a potential NFL star after his senior season in 2010.

However, fast-forward to the present and Tebow still has severe trouble with the QB-Center exchange and has terrible footwork. In fact not only is he not in the competition for the starting quarterback position on the Denver Broncos, he is fighting to keep his job as the third-string QB with undrafted rookie Adam Weber from the University of Minnesota. 

Cam Newton is this season's Tim Tebow. He arrived in the NFL as an uber-hyped player from  Auburn after winning both the Heisman Trophy and the NCAA Championship last year. However, Newton's play so far this year encompasses all of the flaws that were previously mentioned as typical of Spread QB's. This doesn't mean that Newton will be a bust like Tebow and Smith, but the odds are stacked against him.

Compare that to Greg McElroy, the quarterback at the University of Alabama last season. McElroy had a decent but not noteworthy season last season, where he was praised more for his composure, leadership, and game management skills rather than his Physical skills or statistics a la Cam Newton. Entering the 2010 NFL Draft McElroy was an afterthought and many thought that he would lucky just to be drafted. However McElroy was selected as a 7th Round Pick by the New York Jets (208 overall) and many wrote him off as a training camp casualty. 

However, while Newton was struggling in his preseason games, McElroy decided to show how quickly he could adapt to the NFL by completing 23 passes out of 39 attempted while throwing for 208 yards and a touchdown.

One more thing, McElroy played in a Pro-Style system in College, as system that mimics the one used in the NFL.

Ultimately, I'm not debating the merits of the Spread System or arguing that the Pro-Style System is better. All I'm saying is that in the NFL where the Pro-Style System is universally used, Quarterbacks who played in a Pro-Style System in College are much more effective than their counterparts who played in a Spread System.

Boomtho Out

Problems With U.S. Mens National Soccer Team

Where is that team that defeated World Cup Champions Spain in the semifinals of the Confederations Cup? Or where is that team that lead Brazil 3-0 at halftime or tied England 1-1?

Today's U.S. team looks nothing like these teams from the past and this article will explain the problems this current team faces and what needs to be done to fix them.

1.     COACHING

Generally in U.S. Soccer History a coach has only been effective for one world cup cycle ( A series of 4 years) and then is ineffective and should be let go. We saw that with Bruce Arena when his effectiveness wore off and was rightfully dismissed by Sunil Gulati, the Head of the U.S. Soccer Association. The time is now for Bob Bradley to also be let go. Bradley was effective in leading the U.S. team through the past cycle and did an admirable job especially considering he wasn't the popular pick to succeed Bruce Arena. However his coaching has gone stale and it is time for a new leader to take charge.

Bradley's coaching is far too predictable as evidenced in the past performances for the U.S. His refusal to try new tactics or players is mind-blowing especially when players such as Tim Ream or Clarence Goodson continue to put in poor performances. Furthermore, his loyalty to such players as his son Michael Bradley, and Clint Dempsey who at times do not produce is a problem. By refusing to use experienced players such as Maurice Edu who has looked amazing at times with the National Team, is just idiotic. Bradley far too often is out coached and constantly looks perplexed from the sideline, unable to change the tactics of his team.

2.    FORWARDS

The lack of quality of Forwards or Strikers on the team is appalling. Jozy Altidore has been the best at this position for past few years, but his production, mainly his goalscoring numbers have been severely lacking. In the last World Cup, not a single U.S. goal was scored by a Striker, an utter failure. Altidore has great speed, but not much else as his skills are still raw and may never fully develop.

Prior to the World Cup, Charlie Davies was seen as a viable option, slower the Altidore but which much more skill, the two formed a competent duo at the very least. However, Davies' horrific car accident only months before the Cup ended any chances of him playing for the National Team, and any future opportunities seem slim.

Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan have been forced into forward duty out of necessity, however the two are much more suited for midfield and should be more involved in playmaking and not the actual goalscoring. While Donovan is the leading all-time goalscorer for the U.S., and Dempsey has been fairly consistent, this is not a long-term situation with both peaking in age and ability.

Chris Wondolowski was picked for the team for the Gold Cup and promptly showed why no one had ever heard of him before.

Juan Agudelo is a young player who may turn-out to be a competent striker in the future. However, he is presently way too young and raw and should not even be playing for the team if there wasn't a dearth of talent at this position.

There is no clear suggestion on how to solve this, except play with fewer forwards and more midfielders and hope the more strikers develop soon.

3.     DEFENSE

Mexico completely blew up the U.S. defense in the Gold Cup, and even before that Championship Game, teams such as Canada and Panama showed deficiencies in this part of the National Team.

Steve Cherundolo and Carlos Bocanegra provide the backbone of the defense. Both provide excellent leadership and an ability to successfully defend the goal. However, both are getting up there in age and even with both of them in their primes, the other two spots are severely lacking.

Tim Ream/ Clarence Goodson have taken to filling the other center defender position next to Bocanegra, and both have looked severely overmatched and simply do not possess enough ability to play at this level. It seems hard to believe that there doesn't exist better quality defenders in the U.S., but these two are not the answer. They have played as stopgap measures, but the US cannot rely on them for long.

Left Defender has remained a problem for years for the U.S. Not a single competent player has been found to fill this position in the past 4 years and instead it has been a revolving door of players. While some have been decent, none have possessed the ability to stick with the National team as anything other than a stopgap.

Shoot-First Point Guards

How many times have you been watching an NBA game and you continually become annoyed to see point guards that seem not even interested in passing the ball?

Typically, point guards have been known for making the rest of the team look good, by valuing assists and setting up teammates up in easy scoring positions, a la Steve Nash. However today, too many point guards think that they are the second-coming of Allen Iverson but are instead severely hurting their teams chances.

Even Iverson, for all the skill he had, never won a NBA Championship, proof that a shoot-first point guard is not the way to go.

Russel Westbrook is a classic example of this type of point guard. Too many times Westbrook will bring the ball down court and fire up shot after shot without even looking to pass to his teammates. This would be fine if he had to carry the team, but Westbrook happens to have some guy named Kevin Durant supporting him.

Westbrook needs to understand his place, of the 2nd best player on his team, and instead of trying to constantly prove his worth he needs to be setting up Durant far more frequently. Scott Brooks needs to drill this into Westbrook or bench him like he did in the playoffs in favor of Eric Maynor, who actually led the Thunder quite adaquetely.

While Westbrook is a tremendous athlete, and has amazing skill, The Thunder will never be able to take the next step until Westbrook learns to give up the rock more. Durant is the superstar on this team, and the Thunder need to live and die by his shot, not that of Russell Westbrook.

Westbook needs to understand his role on the team, that of Robin to Durant's Batman, and unless he stops his ridiculous amount of shot attempts per game the Thunder will never be in the NBA Finals.

Boomtho out

NBA Draft 2011- Grades

With the passing of one of my favorite events to watch on television today,  I thought I'd share my opinion on the good, the bad, and the ugly that we witnessed today.

2 Thumbs up:

 Cleveland Cavaliers- With the franchise in utter dismay following the "Decision" it became necessary for Dan Gilbert and Bryon Scott to start the rebuilding process.

Obviously the way too old, and way overweight  Baron Davis was not the future point guard for the Cavs, so it was extremely important to get the best point guard available. While Kyrie Irving may never be in the same tier as a Chris Paul or Deron Williams, he will definitely by a top 10 point guard GUARANTEED. This was by far one of the safest picks in the draft and will be the backbone for the Cavs for the next 10 years. These might seem like odd statements to make from a guy who played in less than a third of Duke's games last year but Irving is a special talent and his impact on the team was obviously noticeable and extremely surprising for a freshmen on such a veteran College team

Many people think the Cavs reached in selecting Tristan Thompson from Texas, but he fills a huge need and is the safer pick between him and Jonas Valanciunas who won't be available at the earliest until the  2012-2013 season. While Jonas may have the higher upside (and higher risk) the Cavs could not wait for future players and needed someone who can make an impact immediately. Therefore, Thompson provided a safe pick and filled a big need; someone to run the floor with an effective post game and potential to become even better.

Overall grade : A-

Utah Jazz- The Jazz selected possibly the best player in the draft Enes Kanter from Turkey and didn't have to move up to the first pick to select him.

Kanter is possibly the best fundamentally sound big men since Tim Duncan (and equally boring) and fills a huge need for the Jazz. Many people are unaware of how good this guy is, because he wasn't cleared by the NCAA to play last year, but in the 2010 Nike Summit he scored 34 points and collected 13 rebounds for the World team. Talk about a dominating performance!

 Imagine a future frountcourt with Millsap at Power Forward and Kanter at Center. Talk about a nightmare for other teams.

Alec Burks, the second first round pick for the Jazz,  can become a terrific guard for the team but it has to be disappointing that the team was unable to select Knight, Walker, or the Jimmer. While Burks was the next best guard, Utah fans have to be a little disappointed that the future point guard of the team was not drafted today. Guess they have to tolerate Devin Harris a little longer.

Overall grade: B+

Golden State Warriors- While the Warriors may not have done anything overly surprising, the simple fact that they didn't do anything foolish or outright stupid was enough for them to make this list. Anyone remember the Mookie Blaylock trade or Patrick O'Bryant, Todd Fuller etc...

The simple fact that the warriors drafted Klay Thompson, the consensus on what most mock drafts said the warriors should do, is progress in my mind. While Thompson may never become a superstar, he has great size (6-7) for a guard and shoots at an amazing 39% from beyond the arc. However, this may indicate that Monta Ellis could be shown the door in the near future. Nevertheless, Mark Jackson has to be happy about his backcourt options for the upcoming season.

Furthermore, the new owners of the Warriors also demonstrated that they are serious about winning and will spend the extra money needed to take that step (Something that couldn't have been said about Chris Cohen). By virtually buying Jeremy Tyler for cash, the Warriors' owners proved how serious they were by grabbing a high risk/high reward player that could have a huge return in the long- run. Even if Tyler turns out to be a bust, the fact that the Warriors were willing to undertake this move on a player the everyone has deemed to be a possible success in the future proves that things are changing in the Golden State.

Overall Grade: B+


2 Thumbs Down:

San Antonio Spurs: For a team known to always make shrewd moves in the draft, the Spurs made a few questionable moves that arguably made their team worse than before the day started.

Trading George Hill for Kawahi Leonard was a very puzzling move, especially for a team that has been linked with trading Tony Parker recently. Obviously, this means that Parker isn't going anywhere and may be forced to play even more minutes with his primary back-out traded away. Leonard on the other hand , has no specialty but is rather known for his hustling, physicality, and attitude. Definitely not as much value as George Hill

If that wasn't bad enough San Antonio drafts Corey Joseph at the end of the 1st round when Joseph was given a mid 2nd-round grade by most experts. San Antonio could have easily traded down and still been able to select their guy if they has so wanted. Very puzzling decisions for a guy who most deem needed one more year in college to be ready for the NBA. I guess he'll have to learn on the job because he will be forced into action as Parker's new backup.

Overall Grade: D

Houston Rockets: As if the Rockets didn't have enough 6-9ish players already ( Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Patrick Paterson anyone) they draft another very similar player in Marcus Morris.

YAWN that's the sound the Rocket's fanbase is making after hoping for a little more excitement for a team that supposed to be gearing up for another title run.  While Morris may be a decent player, every Rockets fan knows that championships aren't won with a ton of Power Forwards and that only means that someone is probably on their way out earlier rather than later.

Overall Grade: C

Best Undrafted free agents:

Michael Dunnigan: A Chicago native who started his career playing for the University of Oregon and then ended up playing professionally in Estonia, Dunnigan has great size (6-10) and vas extremely productive oversees. Many saw him as better player that Jeremy Tyler who was selected in the middle of the 2nd round.

Scotty Hopson: While Hopson has all the talent in the world, its attitude problems and inconsistency that probably caused him to not be drafted. Hopson would show flashes of brilliance at the University of Tennessee  but would be tough to coach, and would be constantly disciplined for a variety of reasons. If Hopson ever puts it all together, he could be a good player off the bench for a variety of teams.

Boomtho out